Is global cooling now more likely than global warming? Firstly I don’t know and neither does anyone else. We may as well get that out of the way to begin with.
Let’s look at a few pointers though, without delving into too much technical stuff because nobody can describe the complexities of climate in one blog post. In fact there are no climate experts – only specialists in limited climate aspects. Nobody is even close to having a handle on the whole picture which is absurdly complex.
So do your own research and reach your own conclusions. Don’t believe large institutions or people paid by them. Don’t believe environmental activists or charities either. They don’t have the answers and if they suggest otherwise then they are deluded or lying. Usually lying.
Okay, let’s take a quick look at the CO2 theory, which is weak, disjointed and based mainly on computer models. There are good practical and mathematical reasons to say with confidence that these models cannot predict important climate variables such as temperature. We can say this simply because we don’t know enough about climate variables to be bunging them into computer models.
In fact we don’t even know if the climate can be modelled mathematically and there are good reasons to suspect that it can’t. How many climate equations have we worked out? None. Ever seen a famous climate equation on an activist T-shirt?
Climate models failed to predict the current global temperature hiatus which has been with us since 1998 in spite of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. So that’s that as far as the CO2 theory is concerned. This does not mean CO2 has no climate role, but there is no evidence that it has a major role. Only dimwits and charlatans are full-on CO2 supporters these days.
This levelling off of global temperatures since 1998 and a recent series of severe winters, in both hemispheres, has coincided with markedly reduced sunspot activity. There are those who believe there is a causal link. They say climate may be affected by the sun’s magnetic field and solar wind which modulate the cloud-seeding effects of cosmic rays. These effects may be related to sunspot activity. Well it’s a proper scientific theory and it hasn’t been disproved so far.
Climate also appears to follow a number of irregular cycles but what causes them and how they interact is unclear. There are lots of theories here too, but probe a little and you soon find lots of uncertainty as well. However, there is not the slightest evidence that these cycles are not natural. They could even be random, or at least partly random.
The poles are not melting at the moment either, in spite of the BBC. Antarctic ice has as far as we can tell, changed very little in decades. Arctic summer ice cover has been shrinking, but seems to have stabilised over the past few years. The Arctic is known to have been ice-free at various times in its history, but to date there is no clear indication of it happening as soon as predicted. Even if the Arctic does eventually melt completely during the summer, we will not know why.
In fact there are a large number of scientific theories about how climate changes, not just the CO2 theory, which was never even one of the better ones. Humans could be affecting the climate through pollution and maybe changes in land usage, but unfortunately the CO2 theory has crowded out other, possibly better theories.
The sun contains 99.8% by mass of the solar system and supplies virtually all of its thermal energy, so it would be unsurprising if it turns out to be the main regulator of our climate, with some internal variation due perhaps to ocean heat circulation. If this is so and if solar activity really is a moderator of our climate, then global cooling over the next few decades could well be a slightly better bet than global warming, because sunspot activity is on the wane.
It’s the sun stupid.
Well maybe it is – who knows? What we do know for sure is that global cooling is far more dangerous than warming. Harvests will fail and people will die – that’s one thing we can be sure of – people will die.