After reading this, these are some of the more serious comments at the Telegraph and around the web:
# Jeb Bush – on 80% of Florida Cuban vote, 56% of Hispanics, 44% of the Jewish vote, liked by Blacks, and a winner with white females, in fact all the constituencies so far alienated by Romney, including conservative republicans.
He has the Bush name, he appeals to conservatives, he actually does habla espagnol ( I think his son is married to an Hispanic), and he hangs chads and killed more murderers than the previous three Florida Governors together.
I think Romney trusts him, and he can be in waiting if Romney gets his head handed to him by President Obama this time around.
# Jeb Bush has already ruled himself out. That is very sensible – He fears that the Obama machine with a $1 Bn in stock would have great fun with the Bush connection. It might actually be a stroke of genius but it’s still a gamble and Romney is not the gambling type is he?
# Right now, the Democrats have a lock on 196 ECVs and the GOP has a lock on 181 ECVs. If a candidate wins a majority of the popular vote in any state, he will be awarded every ECV for that state.
The four larges swing states – could still go either way – are Fl 29, Oh 18 and Pa 20 and NC 15. 270 ECVs are needed to win. So, this election will be decided based on moderate voters in a handful of mostly Midwestern key states who are as yet uncommitted. Pallin is from Al which has only 3 ECVs and which will vote Republican regardless of what she does. If Romney picks her, he would be incredibly stupid. The issue of the female vote is over hyped because it is the moderate voters in only a handful of key states which will make a difference.
Romney needs someone to run with who will help him win in Fl, Oh, Pa and NC. That is why he will likely choose a popular person from one of those states as his running mate. Rubio.. Jeb Bush.. Connie Mack.. Nikki Haley.. etc.
# The Republicans are 89 ECVs short on your analysis. The four swing states only total 82 so even if they win all four they will still need another 7 from somewhere else.
The Democrats are only 74 votes shortbutstill need to win all fourstates to claim victory.
Obviously with 539 ECVs in total there must be another 80 up for grabs elsewhere, or am I missing something?
# Only the huge mistakes Obama has made, the Green debacles and the price of Gas and Jobs mean that O is not a shoe in.
# Seems popular:
# I thought everyone in the Republican Party wanted Marco Rubio. He might attract Hispanics the way Barack Obama attracted the black vote, and given the Republican Party’s shall we say insensitive dealings with those south of the border as of late, it might be a sensible idea to pick one of the only eligible brown candidates.
Speaking personally, it would seem if you could get a black[ish] woman not off the planet and short on the feminazism, that my be the best running mate. Romney is a serious liability in himself and so even a good running mate would only make a dent. Methinks it’s four more years of the non-prez Barry Soetoro.