It’s a bit soon perhaps, while Cameron is still in the process of wrecking the Conservative Party this evening, to look at the next year.
If these figures can be believed:
Survation Poll out now – General Elections 2015 Voting Intention:
Survation – European Elections 2014 Voting Intention:
Mike Smithson of Political Betting also saying that before Survation reallocated the ‘dont knows’ UKIP was only 0.5% behind the Tories.
Survation also showing that among the 55+ age group (those least likely to change their minds, and those most likely to vote) the polls are as follows for 2015 –
… then were, say, 100 MPs to leave in disgust, there is still the resistance to UKIP and Farage. Essentially, there would be party-less MPs and rank and file who would be looking to form a new party.
I believe Farage must be prepared to ditch the name UKIP and make it something like the United Kingdom Party, broaden the policies and bring the disgruntled Tories on board in a free way, not by imposing impossible conditions of entry – remember, they are MPs already.
By 2015, the new party must be functioning like a government in waiting, with a set of quality shadow ministers. The ball would then be in their court as an opposition. Farage must ensure that no more gaffs designed to turn off the average voter eventuate.
It would still be an upward battle, even with momentum. Labour’s tribal vote will still have it around 28-30% so the new party needs to be in the 35% range. That would leave the Faux Tories around 20 something percent but as they’ll join Labour in coalition, they could still call on 50 plus percent.
That would mean the remaining Tories in the Faux Party would need to examine whether they leave or not. If they leave, they have upheld their conservative credentials. If they don’t, they are red.
For libertarians, the issue is a practical one. There is little chance in the immediate of a total breakdown and a new system of governance unless it’s one the EU brings in. In practical terms, the least worst option for libertarians is to go for this new party, carefully not calling itself conservative.
That gets through 2015 if enough Faux Conservatives decide not to commit the shame of joining Labour as they’re doing tonight.
The obvious complication is Scotland departing, which many are sure will not happen but still – imagine it did. That’s the Lib-Dems and Labour much reduced and that’s a better chance for the new party.
Either way, the Conservative Party as it was is toast tonight.
Most libertarians don’t want ANY parties but direct democracy but that’s not a practical proposition yet – there’s two-thirds of a population to bring over on that one. It has more chance under the new party than under any of the others.
For those who wouldn’t want a bar of such a party or for those who have been waiting for UKIP as UKIP to win 2015 – good luck and my vote will be in there somewhere but it’s a big ask to get UKIP MPs past the gerrymander without some sort of accommodation somewhere.