The United Kingdom Party

It’s a bit soon perhaps, while Cameron is still in the process of wrecking the Conservative Party this evening, to look at the next year.

If these figures can be believed:

Survation Poll out now – General Elections 2015 Voting Intention:

LAB 35%
CON 24%
UKIP 22%
LDEM 11%

Survation – European Elections 2014 Voting Intention:

LAB 31%
UKIP 30%
CON 20%

Mike Smithson of Political Betting also saying that before Survation reallocated the ‘dont knows’ UKIP was only 0.5% behind the Tories.

Survation also showing that among the 55+ age group (those least likely to change their minds, and those most likely to vote) the polls are as follows for 2015 –

UKIP 33%
CON 27%
LAB 25%

… then were, say, 100 MPs to leave in disgust, there is still the resistance to UKIP and Farage. Essentially, there would be party-less MPs and rank and file who would be looking to form a new party.

I believe Farage must be prepared to ditch the name UKIP and make it something like the United Kingdom Party, broaden the policies and bring the disgruntled Tories on board in a free way, not by imposing impossible conditions of entry – remember, they are MPs already.

By 2015, the new party must be functioning like a government in waiting, with a set of quality shadow ministers. The ball would then be in their court as an opposition. Farage must ensure that no more gaffs designed to turn off the average voter eventuate.

It would still be an upward battle, even with momentum. Labour’s tribal vote will still have it around 28-30% so the new party needs to be in the 35% range. That would leave the Faux Tories around 20 something percent but as they’ll join Labour in coalition, they could still call on 50 plus percent.

That would mean the remaining Tories in the Faux Party would need to examine whether they leave or not. If they leave, they have upheld their conservative credentials. If they don’t, they are red.

For libertarians, the issue is a practical one. There is little chance in the immediate of a total breakdown and a new system of governance unless it’s one the EU brings in. In practical terms, the least worst option for libertarians is to go for this new party, carefully not calling itself conservative.

That gets through 2015 if enough Faux Conservatives decide not to commit the shame of joining Labour as they’re doing tonight.

The obvious complication is Scotland departing, which many are sure will not happen but still – imagine it did. That’s the Lib-Dems and Labour much reduced and that’s a better chance for the new party.

Either way, the Conservative Party as it was is toast tonight.

Most libertarians don’t want ANY parties but direct democracy but that’s not a practical proposition yet – there’s two-thirds of a population to bring over on that one. It has more chance under the new party than under any of the others.

For those who wouldn’t want a bar of such a party or for those who have been waiting for UKIP as UKIP to win 2015 – good luck and my vote will be in there somewhere but it’s a big ask to get UKIP MPs past the gerrymander without some sort of accommodation somewhere.

5 comments for “The United Kingdom Party

  1. May 20, 2013 at 11:06 pm

    I don’t think Farage should ditch UKIP, merely revisit some of his policies. For example, multiculturalism is nothing to be scared of; it merely indicates that we all stand shoulder to shoulder as equals. Diversity, which says that some are more equal than others, is the real problem. Also gay marriage won’t end the world; the issue is that marriage is older even than religion and is not the property of 600-odd MPs, let alone the fascists in Brussels who told Cameron to move his tail.

    • Daniel1979
      May 21, 2013 at 12:30 pm

      That is not what Multi-culturalism ‘indicates’

  2. Dan
    May 21, 2013 at 12:03 am

    And let that United Kingdom party organise in Northern Ireland from the start, and give those of us disenfranchised and who refuse to vote for the religious zealots of the DUP a,chance to elect a decent MP

    • Mudplugger
      May 21, 2013 at 9:16 pm

      Sorry, but you Ulster provincials are not allowed to participate in much of the UK mainland’s activities and laws – that would only make it so much more difficult when the planned merger with the Irish Republic takes place in a decade or two.
      (Or haven’t they told you about that plan yet ?)

  3. Greg Tingey
    May 23, 2013 at 9:11 am

    I’m not so sure about “Labour’s tribal vote”
    And neither should you …
    As one might expect, quite a few allotment-holders are “old Labour” in sentiment … and they have grown to HATE the EU for its’ interference & nannying.
    [ Recent things,some of which have attracted attention:
    Olive Oil for the benefit of the big corporations …
    Seed-exchange banned for (effectively) small groups for the benefit of the big corporations
    Fungicides (which are safe & turn into fertilser) banned for PRIVATE use for the benefit of the big corporations & agribusiness
    etc ]

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