South Yorks – initial analysis

Friday, 13:19:

Current vote share w/ Rotherham left to declare (South Yorks PCC):

LAB – 52.3%
UKIP – 28.9%< CON - 12.9% EDEM - 5.8% No turnout stated so that indicates it was embarrassingly low.  EDEM factor can be seen in the votes. What can one conclude? #  As many interviewed said, it's a non-position, one which should never have been. #  It is true Labour heartland, where the tribalists dwell, those low of brow. #  There's almost a perfect logic working here.  The Rotherham 1400 matter not to the locals and that's why it actually happened.  The place is full of Shonas [see a previous post or the Wail] and that's why we, outside Labour heartlands, are shocked by things like child abuse but they're clearly inured or oblivious. #  There was deep resentment of UKIP's poster tactic - no community wishes to be reminded of its crimes.  Sheffield in particular, with its corrupt Common Purpose council, is a good indicator of the area. Lessons Labour: You can always count on the deadheads. Tory:  Never in the hunt here, not really an issue. UKIP:  Yes, there are lessons in how to treat Labour tribalists if it hopes to pick up votes from them.  UKIP will need to analyze this carefully.  Obviously not a wipeout and remember the result is across the whole of South Yorks but a bit ambitious of the rank and file who thought UKIP could take this non-position. The party HQ were always quiet on it, though Mark Reckless lent support - er Mark, that works in Rochester and Strood but you're too Tory looking for this place. Methinks UKIP need to be - and probably are at HQ, despite Nigel's rhetoric - circumspect and thankful for the 8 or so seats which might come next year.  It also seems they'll be vastly outnumbered by the SNP who will be the true balance of power. This is not a matter for alarm, just for quiet reflection, as Douglas Carswell does.

12 comments for “South Yorks – initial analysis

  1. October 31, 2014 at 2:49 pm

    I am not overly surprised by this after all the abuse in Rotherham was perpetrated by Muslims , but condoned and covered up by the labour council (mind you in a place like Rotherham most of them will be Muslims and the ones that aren’t would be too afraid to speak out), so the local Muslim communities will continue to vote Labour as it’s a mandate to abuse.
    I was quite upset to see a headline the other day saying that in parts of Manchester grooming gangs are accepted as “Normal” and was at pains to point out to this that it ain’t normal where I come from but then thats not down town Islamabad nor is it Manchester and if this is seen as normal now then we really are in worse trouble than even I suspected.
    I would have been amazed if UKIP had taken Rotheram.
    However that said Labours woes in Scotland grow daily so that cheers me up considerably.

  2. Mudplugger
    October 31, 2014 at 3:33 pm

    Could be worth separately analysing the vote-shares between Postal Votes and real ones. Apparently around 75% of this miserable turnout was Postal Votes, not real ballot-box ones.

    If the Real Vote result ratio is widely different, there may be some interesting conclusions to be drawn about the Postal Vote ‘management skills’ of the different parties……

  3. Brightside Bob
    October 31, 2014 at 4:29 pm

    James, this is primarily a lesson in the fallibility of postal voting (Labours preferred voting method…).

    It also worth remembering that remark by the Heywood & Middleton Returning Officer:

    “That would have been the result whatever it said.”

  4. wiggia
    October 31, 2014 at 4:36 pm

    All this shows is that Joe Public is even less interested in the role of PCC than they are with Parliament, the PCC has been shown to be just another layer of troughers, it should be done away with, no one will miss them and their expensive add ons.

  5. October 31, 2014 at 6:28 pm

    Sort of spits in the face of the Chartists, who wanted universal suffrage with a secret ballot. In modern Britain the whole world votes in secret.

    • Mudplugger
      October 31, 2014 at 7:50 pm

      I seem to recall that the Chartists also wanted equal electoral districts – another one not yet delivered 150+ years later, and never will be if some parties continue to block it.

      But it’s still not quite as bad as the EU Parliament, where the likes of Malta and Luxembourg get MEPs for a tenth of the voter numbers needed in Britain – and they claim it’s democratic !

  6. October 31, 2014 at 8:06 pm

    Just been reading these. The postal vote issue is important and the candidate is from one of the most corrupt councils in the UK – Martin Brighton’s been fighting them for years. Common Purpose is known to infest the council.

    Having said all that, it’s really dispiriting that this man ran on a platform of “re-establishing trust with the local community”, i.e. some voters bought this from the very people who turned a blind eye. Are people stupid or is it that they want it all to go away and someone makes rapprochement noises and they all go there as fireflies?

    UKIP must come over in that place as brash and nasty, not “of us”. There’s a residual trait in the Brit to silently oppose anyone who gets cavalier or noisy, as UKIP have. Best vote for the same old same old, couched in softer terms and feelgood words.

    Though they’re lies. After all, we all want everything to be lovely and nice and we all get along and everything’s fine and OK.

    Except for the children at risk of course but who cares about them?

    • October 31, 2014 at 8:18 pm

      “Re-establishing trust” sounds like “getting white Labour voters to take us seriously again”, not “changing ourselves to become more trustworthy”. Weasel words.

  7. Hereward unbowed.
    October 31, 2014 at 8:34 pm

    I think, that the major point you are missing, and on a turnout of 14% ably demonstrates just what the people of South Yorkshire think of this particular political sinecure, added to that, the universal contempt that previous incumbent and prize twat “I see no problems” Shaun Wright – and we observe the conclusion of the good folk of South Yorks.

    No white voters turned out. But it was clearly, a Kashmiri postal vote – was all it was, and it is time to move on.

    The GE will be a different ballpark, even the Revolutionary Bolsheviks, SWP and Marxists pervading Common Purpose of the PRSY [for the uninitiated ‘The people’s republic of South Yorkshire] council are bricking it, and the same with the scum party MP’s – who have had it.

    Indubitably, UKIP will win seats in SY.

    • Brightside Bob
      November 1, 2014 at 12:21 am

      “No white voters turned out.” Thank you for your analysis.

      I must have dreamed that I went to the polling station and cast my vote…

  8. Errol
    October 31, 2014 at 8:40 pm

    Except UKIP won’t do that research. They didn’t consider the dmeographic and so went ahead with a poster campaign instead of a quiet under the radar discussion group.

    Again, the damned fools missed an open goal.

    No doubt everyone will start screaming and shout about how evil I am. Yes, I am, but UKIP are asleep at the wheel and that’s not bloody good enough. Farage has got to start doing the detail. I want them to win and I want them to succeed, but they’re proving inept.

    • October 31, 2014 at 9:26 pm

      No, not evil, on the money. UKIP is new at this game and Nigel is not the best tactician. Leader, yes but some of his moves, e.g. this ‘people’s army’ he insists on – one wonders.

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