Number crunching

Interesting number crunching going on. Guido’s readers, not him due to his bias, have:

What is interesting is that the UKIP vote share in Scotland is about 4%, and in London about 8%, but in the UK as a whole they are currently polling about 15-18%.

If you do the maths on this, you will find that in England they have to be polling around 23-5% for the UK average to work out correctly.

This means that in many of the city seats in England there are going to be some big surprises.


Conservative – 278
UKIP – 5
DUP – 9
Lib Dem – 24

Total = 316

Labour – 301
SNP – 18
Plaid Cymru – 3
Green – 1
Respect – 1
SDLP – 5

Total = 327

Whichever way it goes, it will be volatile. What I see happening in England is that UKIP will run the Big Two close in many seats, e.g. 34% to 31% but there’ll be a hell of a lot of “close calls” for UKIP.

Naturally, the public is thick and will tribally vote Big Two in many cases, which is truly bizarre but all the same, the Dale projection might be close to the mark.

Another stat:

920,000 have disappeared from the electoral roll.

Well, I’m on. Won’t help much in my constituency.  Nor in Scotland nor Londonistan.

3 comments for “Number crunching

  1. john in cheshire
    March 3, 2015 at 12:39 pm

    Get rid of postal voting and it’s likely another million will disappear off the electoral roll. And on that subject why shouldn’t voters be required to produce id before they are permitted to vote?

  2. Viscount Rectum
    March 3, 2015 at 4:30 pm

    A friend of mine was talking to a Polish woman who said she cannot understand the English, are they mad? how can you give homes to immigrants while your English people are homeless, it is simple really Jack Straw said it quote” the English as a race are not worth saving” unquote. meaning get rid of us by population replacement and leave our young to be raped by Asian predators. Have you seen the report about the Oxfordshire sexual abuse by Asians of our young, and as is said stop postal voting. UKIP for me.

    • Boris
      March 4, 2015 at 1:46 am

      You wonder whether the Daily Mail front page about Jihadi John (shit name) and his family having claimed benefits for 20 years to the tune of over £400K will finally make people realise how fucked our immigration and benefits systems are.

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