Interesting number crunching going on. Guido’s readers, not him due to his bias, have:
What is interesting is that the UKIP vote share in Scotland is about 4%, and in London about 8%, but in the UK as a whole they are currently polling about 15-18%.
If you do the maths on this, you will find that in England they have to be polling around 23-5% for the UK average to work out correctly.
This means that in many of the city seats in England there are going to be some big surprises.
Conservative – 278
UKIP – 5
DUP – 9
Lib Dem – 24
Total = 316
Labour – 301
SNP – 18
Plaid Cymru – 3
Green – 1
Respect – 1
SDLP – 5
Total = 327
Whichever way it goes, it will be volatile. What I see happening in England is that UKIP will run the Big Two close in many seats, e.g. 34% to 31% but there’ll be a hell of a lot of “close calls” for UKIP.
Naturally, the public is thick and will tribally vote Big Two in many cases, which is truly bizarre but all the same, the Dale projection might be close to the mark.
920,000 have disappeared from the electoral roll.
Well, I’m on. Won’t help much in my constituency. Nor in Scotland nor Londonistan.