Don’t talk UK trade prospects down

Got into a Twitter altercation with I knew not whom. Maybe a Remain Tory, don’t think he was left.

His line was that we export 45% to EU and import 7%.  This is misleading. Yes, our exports might be that but imports aren’t. Here are trade dept. figures:

In 2000, 60% of exports went to other EU countries, but the percentage fell to 58% in 2005, 54% in 2010 and 47% in 2015

Over the same period, imports from the EU remained constant, accounting for 54% in both 2000 and 2015.

I think he was taking percentage as against world trade but if exports to EU alone are measured against imports from EU alone, it comes out as in the quote.

And here are some comparatives from around the world:

uk imports exports

The situation, post-Brexit, has changed, with trade between businesses, let alone trade agreements, looking up.  What is not mentioned much in all these percentages is that those European countries, not the EU, do export to us and  not in thousands or even millions but in billions. They’re not going to put up with not having that trade.

I’m afraid the Remainers are telling porkies, are pulling the wool, are talking us down.

Another thing they’re going on about is the 15 years to alter the single market. But who needs any single market?  The EU is going to collapse. It must, as firstly the Euro fails, then Austria and Hungary make moves to go, then Italy collapses [close now], then probably France.

These countries are not going to prop up a money drainer while they’re losing trade on such a scale.  It’s just not logical.

And this is reflected in the BofE change of heart on our prospects now, even one week after Brexit.

The reaction of my ‘friend’?  The first here was his reaction to my asking whether 20 years plus of getting to this point, plus the 17 million, plus the economists and finance people now, plus all the rest overseas, are also stupid?

I am deluded

Notice the stats he quotes to back up his assertion. Were there any, apart from the 45% and 7%, I assure you I’d post them here.

So I went further:

… and:

No response.  The thing is, we’re certainly not in good times for Europe, no point trying to talk those up. EU countries are finding this out and some, e.g. Austria and Hungary, want a pretext to be out now.

It’s up to us to be out of there before it comes down. It’s true that our leaving will help precipitate that very thing but if it were more than a political project, it would ride through it.

What my ‘friend’ singularly does not see is that the UK is a nation, not a single business, e.g. Zoopla, which may well go down now because of a stupidity. It is a nation which makes trade deals in order to allow our businesses to trade.

And then there are the businesses themselves which make their own deals and then there is inwards investment. It’s a dynamic situation and it can be affected by confidence-sapping.

And who is doing all the confidence-sapping?  Yes, Osborne and his Remainers. That German minister has come out this morning saying Osborne told him to talk down Brexit.  ‘Told him’?

If a nation wallows in doom and gloom, it will have doom and gloom. If it grasps opportunities, then it’s a 50/50 chance in the early stages, then it gets better.

One thing quite certain, given March 30th, 2017, is that the UK was in a dire position within the EU. Even now the EU is demanding another £12bn bail-out money.  It would never end.

Every which way, Remain are trying to stymie the country’s prospects. The Zoopla legal challenge, the attempt to crown May without a vote – it’s all part of the same thing.

Put simply, do you see a vision for the UK of these people, or do you see the other vision, the positive one?  That we’ll battle through and then blossom?

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1 comment for “Don’t talk UK trade prospects down

  1. Bemused
    July 6, 2016 at 7:06 am

    I don’t know the figures but could he have been using two different datum? IE 45% of all UK exports go to the EU, and 7% of all EU exports come to the UK?
    This off course is meaningless.

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