Brecon

Everyone’s been having his or her say out there.

Was speaking with some Labour people today – politically mindless tribalists through to those who have woken up.

The ones who have woken up won’t actually commit to toffee nosed Farage but there’s no way they’ll vote Tory either, and Lib Dem are just as bad of many but not for a majority.  Most of the Labour defectees have gone Lib Dem and that is a major worry – might even be a LibDem govt.

Naturally, the Tories, e.g. Baker, have gone beserk at the BP for ‘splitting the vote’.  Nope, the Tories have split the vote by failing to deliver in three years, the BP came first with the EU elections and showed they’re a force.

Of course, they never do as well in the GE, best has been a brave second as the now defunct UKIP or as as Arron said earlier – they lost.  That’s before looking at the electoral fraud, e.g. the EC.

And there are local issues – no one was going to vote for Davies again, at least not enough to win.  Labour are also dead in the water in Wales, the LD and BP votes were protest votes.

England is a different thing but outside the M25 bubble, there is very strong BP support, even among Labour exiles.  I listened to them today.

The only sane way is for Boris to wake up to himself and do a strategic with Nigel but there’s no love lost between the two egotists.

I hear all the time about the BP having no policies other than Brexit, which is not so – they have some good ones.  But it’s true that Brexit comes first.

October 31st is the key date, we had to reapply for electoral roll in our area so it’s clear what they think is about to happen.

So, as one guy said today – it’s watch and wait, simmering but not yet boiling over.

First executions

The political class are not going to reverse Blair’s dropping of execution for high treason so it won’t come from them.

My feeling is it will come from some group in the way Ceaușescu and wife were removed, in the way the French Revolution began. Can’t see another Cromwell so that one remains to be seen.

The one figure I think who could be executed without repercussions [much] is Blair. Can’t see May being tried by anyone.

4 comments for “Brecon

  1. James Strong
    August 3, 2019 at 6:17 am

    ‘Labour are also dead in the water in Wales’.

    It’s not reasonable to extrapolate from Labour’s result in Brecon and Radnorshire.

    That constituency is very different from the Valleys.

    The Labour position is certainly weakening but we don’t know the major reason for that. Caerphilly council recently made a declaration in support of independence for Wales, that’s a Plaid Cymru position. But Wales voted Leave and Plaid Cymru are a Remain party.

    Certainly in some areas there is growing resentment at Labour cronyism.

    Also there might be a chance for the Brexit Party to get votes from Labout Leave voters. But to predict how many votes is impossible.

    2 of the 4 MEPs for Wales are from the Brexit Party, but will that vote carry over to a General Election?

    Certainly there are still tens of thousands of traditional Labour voters in the Valleys, the part of Wales I come from and am familar with, who will NEVER vote Conservative. But what they will do instead is unclear. They really could go Brexit Party, Plaid Cymru (possibly LibDem) or just stay at home. And the fact that Plaid Cymru and the Brexit Party have very different policies would not be a factor for many when they decide how to vote. Readers here might find that idea strange, but it’s real.

    If I were running strategy for the Brexit Party in Wales I’d be putting everything into 5 or 6 Labour constituencies that voted Leave. And when people say that there’s no point voting because all politicians are the same I’d make it clear that with the Brexit Party you can be confident that they will, in fact, do what they say.

    And I’d be starting the campaign now. Now. With street stalls most Saturdays

  2. Sackerson
    August 3, 2019 at 6:48 am

    May WAS tried, and found wanting.

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