I have seen this mistake made so many times in this crisis that I am well on my way to a stroke.
The models reported on—just like Ferguson’s and everybody else’s—are built saying social distancing reduces death. This fact is an integral part of them. It’s not a “discovery” of the models, it is a condition in them. The models had to say social distancing worked because they started with the premise social distancing worked.
You cannot “discover” social distancing worked via any model …
A scientist creates a model, or a civilian looks at a model created by some smart person, and, somehow, the model takes on a life of its own. It becomes and replaces reality, this model, at least in part.
Since the model is now “reality”, we can look at it like we do Reality and pretend to come to an understanding of how the world works. The model’s workings take the place of Reality’s workings.
This is all wrong.
Yes and when it comes to why the particular models on Cv are flawed comes back to the people using Modelling as a propaganda tool.
Which people? These: